There is an old joke about a recession being when your neighbor is out of work; in a depression, YOU are out of work.
In 2010 we are supposedly coming out of what economists consider a recession. But based on people who are jobless we are either still stuck dead center in a recession or, if it’s you who’s sitting home from 9 to 5, it could feel like we’re in the middle of a depression.
Despite the fact that we are quick to say the economy is stagnant, there has been a recovery of sorts, at least in numbers. Last year in the third quarter the nation’s Gross Domestic Product grew 2.2 percent and in the fourth quarter it expanded by almost six percent.
This recovery is mighty hard to see in places like Pickens County, where the busted real estate market and lack of diverse industries leave us seeing little change. However, an earlier report from the local economic development office had start up businesses moving into two of the larger industrial facilities in the county, meaning there are signs of life.
Jasper merchants reported a better than expected holiday season in 2009. Foreclosures continue a record setting pace, but Pickens businesses are not closing at a corresponding rate.
Nationally, consumer spending, corporate spending, exports, and stock market activity have either improved or showed signs of returning to life, all the while employment growth has been flat.
The Congressional Budget Office projected little improvement in the jobs situation for the rest of the year.
Nationwide, 15 million people are considered jobless by labor department figures. Of these, 6.3 million are considered the long-term unemployed, having been without work for at least six months.
In a too-simple view of our economic recovery, the high unemployment (9.7 percent nationwide; 11.4 percent in Northwest Ga. from the latest figures) was just part of the wider recession that has continued unabated for the past several years. And when the economy does turn around, this line of idealized thinking has everyone getting their old jobs back.
But with economics the simple version is not necessary the correct one, as there are other factors keeping people on the jobless rolls. It would certainly help to see strong economic expansion, but the prospect of companies doing better, which indicators say they already are, doesn’t equate to automatic jobs.
The downturn in the economy brought about a shift, where companies learned to do more with fewer employees. Manufacturing companies have continued to move overseas or consolidate operations causing some jobs to vanish (as opposed to positions that exist but are intentionally unfilled).
Conservatives complain that high taxes and withholdings keep employers from hiring more frequently and liberals complain that expensive private health insurance keeps company personnel down.
Aside from general belt-tightening and the migration of jobs overseas, technological promises of efficiency finally caught up to the hype. The New York Times attributed 5.6 million lost jobs nationwide as being tied directly to new and better automated work systems.
It’s hard to blame companies who realized they could get similar output from fewer employees and opted to make the cuts. Isn’t lowering costs and improving efficiency considered a good thing?
But as it moves forward, America, especially places like Pickens County, must come to terms with these shifts. Good economy or recession, we need an economic plan that will put people to work regardless of what is happening on Wall Street.
Tom Graves, former state representative now seeking congress, took the lead on a JOBS act as one of his final moves under the state’s Gold Dome. The provisions of his bill will help Georgia compete with other states for companies. And it will offer credit for hiring people off unemployment rolls, but this is a short term solution.
What’s needed is a fundamental shift. As one Jasper development authority person said of Pickens County, “We need companies where we make things” --- something requiring several hands to get a job done or to get parts produced.
The question is with some jobs moving overseas and other jobs being eliminated through technology, where will people in places like Pickens County work? |
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